As global consensus on reducing carbon emissions strengthens, stricter regulations are being implemented on automobile emissionsThe shift towards new energy vehicles (NEVs) is becoming inevitableNEVs primarily follow two different technological paths: the all-electric route, led by countries such as China and the United States, and the hydrogen fuel cell route, championed by Japan.

Looking at the trends, the all-electric path seems largely set, while opportunities for hydrogen energy are diminishingTo understand why Japan remains steadfast in its pursuit of hydrogen energy, we must delve into the historical and technological context that shapes this decision.

During the era of gasoline-powered vehicles, Japanese automakers, with Toyota at the forefront, used their advanced engine technology to effectively dominate the American automotive industryAmerican-made cars, once the favorite of domestic consumers, were no match for their Japanese counterparts

This success was not confined to the American market; Japanese automakers expanded their influence globally, accumulating a wealth of technology and patents over the decadesBy contrast, American automakers found it increasingly difficult to compete with Japan's technological edge, and for China—entering the automotive industry much later—the road to catching up seemed even more arduousDespite years of effort, Chinese domestic automakers are still far from overtaking Japan's auto industry.

The structure of electric vehicles (EVs) is relatively simple and straightforward compared to the complex mechanical systems of traditional gasoline carsThe core technologies in EVs focus on three key areas: battery technology, battery management systems, and autonomous driving systemsOver recent years, China has made significant strides in the development of electric vehiclesWith its vast market demand, well-established industrial infrastructure, and continuous investment in research and development, China has made considerable advances in areas such as battery material innovation, manufacturing processes, and energy density improvement

This has led to the rise of global battery suppliers like CATL (Contemporary Amperex Technology CoLimited), which is now a prominent player in the electric vehicle supply chain.

In contrast, Japan faces a difficult dilemmaIf Japan were to embrace the all-electric route, it would effectively abandon decades of technological advancement in the gasoline car eraWhile Japan's battery technology is solid, it is not necessarily world-leading, and when it comes to autonomous driving and battery management algorithms, Japan is at a disadvantageFor Japan, choosing a path where it lacks a competitive edge and abandoning its historical strengths in gasoline-powered vehicles is understandably a hard pill to swallow.

Hydrogen fuel cell vehicles, on the other hand, have a much closer structural resemblance to traditional internal combustion engine vehiclesThis alignment would allow Japan to leverage its expertise in traditional automotive technology

If other countries were to also pursue hydrogen energy, they would face intense competition from Japanese companies like Toyota, and may also have to pay high patent feesThis scenario is undesirable for both China and the United StatesUnfortunately, China and the United States, as the largest and second-largest automotive markets globally, hold significant sway over the direction of technological development in the industry.

Japan's steadfast commitment to hydrogen energy is understandable given its historical automotive achievements and technological foundations, but it faces numerous challenges in a rapidly changing global automotive landscapeThe wave of electric vehicle development is sweeping across the globe, and hydrogen energy, despite its unique advantages such as shorter refueling times, longer ranges, and zero emissions (with the only byproduct being pure water), is increasingly becoming a niche solution

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It may find limited applications in specific sectors such as long-haul heavy freight transport and large buses, but it seems unlikely to replicate the dominance Japan once enjoyed in the gasoline vehicle era.

If Japan continues to ignore the shifting international landscape and the historical momentum of electric vehicle development, it risks being left behindIn the not-too-distant future, Japanese streets may be filled predominantly with electric vehicles from China, the United States, or Europe—an entirely different "landscape" than the one Japan's automotive industry once ruledThe younger generation in Japan may, at best, learn about the glory days of Japanese automobiles through history books or archival footage, reminiscing about a time when Japan was the undisputed leader in the global automotive marketMeanwhile, the global NEV industry will continue to be shaped by the all-electric routes of China, the U.S., and Europe, marching toward a future of greater efficiency, intelligence, and sustainability.

Japan's unwavering pursuit of hydrogen energy may well become a symbol of technological nostalgia, unable to keep pace with the future defined by electric vehicles