Looming Risks: Gold May Hit $2800, Silver Gains Momentum
- News
- 2024-07-19
- 17 comments
On Friday (October 25th), international gold prices experienced a slight decline, but the week is expected to close higher due to escalating geopolitical tensions, with investors seeking safe-haven metals. Additionally, palladium is on track to record its largest increase in over a month this week.
As of the time of writing, spot gold fell by 0.6%, hovering around $2,720. On Wednesday, the gold price reached a record high of $2,758.37, with a 0.4% increase so far this week.
Amid the gold pullback, the US dollar is attempting to hold onto the 104 level after a significant drop yesterday, with little change. Earlier this week, it touched a three-month high of approximately 104.57, up 0.5% for the week. This marks the fourth consecutive week of gains for the US Dollar Index, which will be the longest weekly rebound for the dollar since February of this year.
The dollar remains stable as expectations grow for the Federal Reserve to reduce the magnitude of interest rate cuts in the coming months. Foreign exchange option volatility has recently surged, reflecting the need for traders to hedge against a series of risks expected to emerge over the next two weeks.
From major central bank interest rate decisions to the first Labour budget in the UK in 14 years, investors must navigate a flurry of events in a short period, while concerns over economic growth in Europe and Asia are intensifying.
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"The dollar has rebounded based on expectations that the Fed will gradually cut interest rates. I also believe the dollar is supported by global uncertainty," said Fiona Cincotta, a market strategist at City Index. "It feels like we are in a slightly unstable moment, and I think this adds support to the dollar's safe-haven trading."
In terms of the Middle East situation, Israeli airstrikes in central Gaza resulted in at least 17 deaths at a school. US and Israeli negotiators will gather in Doha to prepare for the resumption of negotiations for a ceasefire agreement in Gaza.
"The election is more dynamic and unpredictable than ever, and this volatility increases attention to gold," said Julia Khandoshko, CEO of European broker Mind Money. "Gold could reach $2,800 within the next three months, and from an annual perspective, the gold price could break through the psychological threshold of $3,000."
Palladium fell by 0.4%, hovering around $1,152.50, but has risen by 7% this week.
The US has asked G7 allies to consider sanctions on Russian palladium and titanium. Russian mining and metallurgical company Nornickel is the world's largest producer of palladium."The possibility of Russian supply disruptions comes as other parts of the market are also struggling to maintain production," said Daniel Hynes, a senior commodity strategist at ANZ Bank.
Spot silver fell by 0.3% to $33.62, after reaching its highest level since 2012 earlier this week.
"Silver is starting to catch up with gold, as it has dual attributes of monetary value and industrial metal, benefiting from the rapid growth of the photovoltaic industry," said Paul Wong, a market strategist at Sprott Asset Management.
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